Spot XRP ETF approval: is a Ripple ETF inevitable?

As one of the original Layer-1s to make waves in the crypto space, Ripple and its native currency XRP are no stranger to anyone familiar with crypto thanks to its cross-border efficiency and rapid low-cost transactions. With spot crypto ETFs being one of the key achievements of 2024 for the crypto industry, many weren't surprised when Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse made headlines by stating that an XRP ETF is inevitable.

Is this truly the case? In our guide to spot XRP ETFs, we cover the basics of spot crypto ETFs, what a spot XRP ETF entails, and whether a spot Ripple ETF approval might be on the cards.

TL;DR

• A spot XRP ETF is an exchange-traded fund that would allow traders to gain exposure to XRP without directly holding the underlying cryptocurrency.

• An XRP ETF could increase XRP's liquidity, attract institutional capital, and potentially boost its price.

• The SEC's classification of XRP as a security is a major hurdle for the approval of a spot Ripple ETF.

• Potential benefits of a Ripple ETF include increased institutional interest, improved liquidity, and an improved strategic positioning.

• The outcome of the Ripple vs SEC case will be crucial in determining the feasibility of a spot XRP ETF.

What is a spot ETF?

An exchange-traded fund (ETF) is a type of fund that pools assets and allows traders to buy shares in a portfolio without owning each asset individually. ETFs are common in traditional finance, where they track indexes, commodities, or sectors. This makes trading accessible since these ETFs are traded on stock exchanges, offering easy liquidity and simplified diversification.

Spot ETFs take things one step further by requiring the fund to have physical ownership of the underlying assets. This direct ownership distinguishes spot ETFs from traditional ETFs that sometimes use derivatives or futures contracts to track their underlying assets.

Why are crypto ETFs significant?

In the case of crypto ETFs, they function similarly by tracking the value of a crypto asset, offering a way to gain exposure to preferred digital assets without directly holding them. In recent months, spot crypto ETFs have become popular for bringing crypto exposure to traditional finance markets, providing access for those who may be hesitant to navigate complex crypto exchanges. Specifically, a spot ETF would require the fund to hold the underlying asset rather than relying on derivatives, offering a more transparent and direct exposure to the coin’s price without any workarounds or unnecessary charges.

What is XRP and XRPL?

Before diving into the potential of a spot XRP ETF, it's essential to understand XRP and its underlying technology. XRP is a digital asset created in 2012 that's designed to facilitate efficient cross-border transactions. It operates on the XRP Ledger (XRPL), which is a decentralized Layer-1 blockchain network that employs a unique consensus protocol. Known for rapid transaction speeds and low fees, XRP serves as a bridge currency that enables fast and secure exchanges between various fiat currencies. It's this practical application and efficiency that ultimately makes it appealing to the world of finance given the heavy reliance on slower modes of currency transfer like SWIFT.

The case for a spot XRP ETF: Is there demand for an XRP ETF?

With 21Shares now getting involved and filing for a 21Shares XRP ETF listing in the U.S., the conversation surrounding a possible approval for a Ripple ETF has been reignited. For many onlookers, the case for a spot XRP ETF lies in XRP’s unique value proposition within the financial sector, especially for cross-border payments. Unlike traditional bank transfers, which can take several days through the SWIFT network and often incur high fees, XRP’s blockchain facilitates near-instant transactions with minimal costs. This efficiency makes it an attractive asset for users and financial institutions aiming to modernize global payments.

As regulatory scrutiny around cryptocurrency increases, XRP’s compliance-oriented approach and institutional acceptance give it a strategic advantage. Many crypto traders view XRP as an overlooked asset with significant upside potential, particularly due to its broad adoption and its capability to address inefficiencies in current financial systems.

If approved, an XRP ETF would effectively unlock access for TradFi traders by providing a regulated channel to engage with the asset and gain exposure to XRP through the spot ETF. Such an ETF could attract traders who are seeking exposure to XRP's transformative potential to revolutionize the banking industry without the need to manage individual XRP tokens or wallets. As demand for reliable, regulated digital financial solutions continues to rise, a spot Ripple ETF would cater to traders interested in securely trading a project with established utility and alignment with regulatory frameworks. This could foster greater institutional confidence in the cryptocurrency space and enhance XRP’s role in modern finance.

Regulatory challenges for a spot XRP ETF: a long-standing battle

For XRP enthusiasts, regulatory obstacles present a significant barrier to a spot XRP ETF. Ripple has faced ongoing legal challenges from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which alleged in December 2020 that XRP is a security. This classification subjects XRP to specific regulatory standards and could hinder its eligibility for an ETF listing.

International markets such as Europe and Canada have shown an openness to crypto ETFs, suggesting that an XRP ETF could gain traction outside the U.S. if regulatory clarity is achieved. Notably, the Grayscale XRP Trust demonstrates potential pathways for similar products in compliant jurisdictions.

The outcome of the Ripple vs. SEC case could be pivotal. A favorable ruling could lift regulatory constraints, potentially setting a foundation for the approval of a spot XRP ETF and restoring confidence among traders.

Implications of a Ripple ETF

Curious about the potential impact if a spot XRP ETF gains approval? Examining previous cases of spot BTC and ETH ETF approvals offers some possible insight into how a spot XRP ETF could transform its ecosystem and the broader crypto market. Here are some key outcomes that may arise.

Increased institutional interest and liquidity

Given Ripple's innovations in the finance sector, the approval of a spot XRP ETF could attract a new source of institutional capital. Currently, many institutional traders and funds remain hesitant to buy crypto directly due to concerns around regulatory clarity, custody risks, and security. A regulated ETF based on an altcoin would effectively address these barriers, offering institutions a more traditional way to gain exposure to XRP without needing to manage crypto wallets or engage in direct transactions. The influx of institutional capital could enhance liquidity and potentially stabilize XRP’s price over time, reducing the market volatility typically associated with crypto assets. This improved liquidity could potentially support market stability and also attract more retail traders by instilling greater confidence in XRP’s volatile market behavior.

A boost to Ripple’s strategic positioning

XRP’s role as a bridge currency aims to address inefficiencies in global banking, especially around cross-border payments. A spot XRP ETF would align closely with Ripple’s ambition to position XRP within mainstream finance, broadening its overall appeal as a global payment solution. Such an ETF would boost XRP’s visibility, likely resulting in more attention from banks, fintech companies, and cross-border payment providers. By providing easier access for traders in the TradFi space, an ETF could pave the way for Ripple to secure strategic partnerships and integrations across financial and technology sectors, potentially solidifying XRP’s position as a leading digital asset in the world of finance.

Increased demand and potential price impact

Although increased accessibility doesn't always lead to a sudden rally in prices, a spot XRP ETF could drive demand, particularly from retail traders seeking regulated exposure to the crypto market. Higher demand combined with greater liquidity may potentially exert upward pressure on XRP’s price, as seen with the announcement of other spot ETF approvals. While price impacts are speculative, historical trends with spot BTC ETFs and spot ETH ETFs suggest that increased institutional buying power can create bullish momentum that translates into short-term price appreciation.

Regulatory significance and industry-wide influence

Approval of a spot XRP ETF could kickstart a significant shift in regulatory attitudes toward crypto. Should the spot XRP ETF gain approval, many traders might see it as validation of XRP’s legitimacy and set a precedent that could pave the way for additional crypto spot ETFs based on other popular altcoins. This could lead to a domino effect of broader acceptance when it comes to regulated crypto products, ultimately benefiting the entire digital asset industry by increasing credibility and easing concerns around regulatory compliance.

Could we see a spot XRP ETF soon?

The timing of an XRP ETF approval ultimately hinges on several factors. One such factor would be the outcome of Ripple’s ongoing legal case with the SEC. A favorable ruling for Ripple could significantly boost XRP’s regulatory standing, making a stronger case for an ETF application by establishing XRP as a compliant asset. The SEC’s oversight of crypto products is understandably demanding, but recent applications for Bitcoin and Ether ETFs from influential firms like BlackRock and Fidelity suggest that crypto products can nonetheless be approved. These institutions bring substantial expertise and longstanding relationships with regulatory bodies, which could support Ripple’s efforts indirectly by encouraging a more favorable view toward crypto ETFs in general.

Meanwhile, future U.S. crypto regulation could have a big impact on the arrival of an XRP ETF in the U.S.. With Trump returning to the White House and the U.S. Senate flipping to a Republican majority, a crypto market structure bill — which provides clarity as to what tokens are commodities or securities — is more likely to pass in 2025.

In addition to domestic factors, developments in global markets could also play a role. Countries that have approved crypto ETFs are setting international benchmarks, and successful launches abroad may influence other jurisdictions to approve the same in a bid to remain competitive internationally.

For traders keen on a potential XRP ETF, monitoring both regulatory updates and international ETF trends is essential. A positive ruling or growing international acceptance could act as catalysts, accelerating momentum for a spot XRP ETF in the U.S.

Final words and next steps

All in all, a spot XRP ETF represents a compelling opportunity for both traders and the broader financial ecosystem. By approving a regulated and accessible ETF product, a spot XRP ETF could fuel new levels of adoption, liquidity, and stability for XRP as a whole while cementing Ripple’s place as a legitimate digital asset in the financial world. Although regulatory challenges could provide a hurdle, the next few years will be pivotal in determining whether an XRP ETF could ultimately become a reality.

Keen to read up more on how other altcoins are doing when it comes to spot ETF approvals? Read our take on the likelihood of a Solana ETF approval. Alternatively, you can also learn how macroeconomic factors like interest rates and Fed rate cuts impact the crypto market.