Summary
Cycles and narratives have always been central topics in the global crypto market. Historically, the industry has often used Bitcoin halving events as reference points to perceive cycles and explore major narrative trends. However, with the approval of Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs, the crypto market is becoming increasingly intertwined with the global financial market, introducing more variables that affect its trajectory.
Amid rising chaos, the ability to clearly perceive cyclical patterns and identify future narrative trends becomes crucial. Investment institutions, as early adopters of innovative narratives, have consistently maintained a forward-looking perspective. In response, OKX has specially curated the "Crypto Evolution" series, inviting leading global crypto investment firms to collaboratively provide systematic insights on current market cycles, emerging narratives, and popular sub-sectors.
The first installment features OKX Ventures, Hashed, and Animoca Research, and focuses on the challenges and opportunities of the current crypto cycle. We hope their insights and reflections on macro development trends will offer valuable inspiration.
About OKX Ventures
OKX Ventures is the investment arm of global leading crypto exchange and Web3 technology company OKX, with an initial capital commitment of $USD100 million. It focuses on exploring the best blockchain projects on a global scale, supporting cutting-edge blockchain technology innovation, promoting the healthy development of the global blockchain industry, and investing in long-term structural value.
Through its commitment to supporting entrepreneurs who contribute to the development of the blockchain industry, OKX Ventures helps build innovative companies and brings global resources and historical experience to blockchain projects.
About Hashed
Hashed, a team of blockchain experts and builders based in multiple global locations, invests in and supports the development of decentralized and blockchain technologies. By participating as core technical contributors, Hashed accelerates the mass adoption of blockchain, transforming the global economy and the internet’s fabric.
About Animoca Digital Research
Animoca Digital Research is a dedicated division within Animoca Brands' Digital Asset Team, comprised of passionate Web3 and decentralization experts from diverse fields. Our mission is to advance industry and community growth by sharing insightful, in-depth research findings. Stay curious, stay humble. WAGMI!
I. Cycles and Market Structure
1. What cycle is the current market in? How has the structure of this cycle changed compared to previous ones?
OKX Ventures: We believe that the industry cycle should be understood from three perspectives.
First is the extent to which the industry has entered mainstream society. Currently, the crypto market has maintained a growth trajectory, reaching a total market capitalization of more than $2 trillion. Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs are now trading within the global mainstream financial markets, with Bitcoin ETFs surpassing $60 billion. The rise of RWA (Real-World Assets) has seen government bond-related assets exceed $1.8 billion, a strong sign of the integration of the traditional world into the crypto industry.
Second is the improvement in the entrepreneurial environment. The flow of VC funds into the industry is on the rise. According to statistics, the total amount of industry financing in Q2 2024 exceeded $3 billion, a 28% increase quarter-over-quarter, indicating that investment institutions are becoming more active overall. Moreover, the continuous influx of talented entrepreneurs, particularly those with top industry and educational backgrounds, is injecting fresh blood into the industry.
Lastly is the large-scale entry of users. Over the past few years, blockchain infrastructure has improved significantly. Ethereum, Layer-2 solutions, and high-performance public blockchains have provided a friendly development environment and ample block space. On the user side, applications in gaming, social, and the Telegram ecosystem are enabling more users to enter the crypto world seamlessly. AI applications, Intent, and Account Abstraction are lowering the learning curve for users. We are on the brink of a large-scale application explosion, and we remain optimistic about the long-term prospects.
Hashed: The cycles of the crypto market are influenced by various factors, including macroeconomic conditions, policy changes, and technological advancements. What sets this market cycle apart from previous ones is the active entry of institutional investors, signaling that the industry is now operating under regulatory frameworks, making the high market volatility of the past unlikely to continue.
In this cycle, there hasn't been a significant increase in new funds from retail investors. However, with the approval of Bitcoin ETFs, institutional interest in Bitcoin has become more active, giving the market an upward appearance. Yet, aside from a few top tokens like ETH, SOL, and TON, many other leading market cap participants are facing difficulties. The legitimacy of each token, and especially the role of application tokens, is facing unprecedented challenges.
Tokens not included in institutional investment lists are encountering significant challenges, which explains why many altcoins haven't experienced the same exponential growth as in the past. Under current market conditions, the continued issuance of tokens without fundamental or valuation logic remains a barrier to new capital inflows, as these tokens are viewed negatively by retail investors, especially in terms of low liquidity and high FDV (Fully Diluted Valuation).
Additionally, one of the main reasons for the limited capital inflow into the crypto market is the focus on macro-level concerns and asset allocation. Retail investors have had a greater impact on public markets than expected. While they flooded into the crypto market from late 2020 to early 2022, they are now heavily investing in the generative AI field. Although most AI startups have yet to generate significant profits, they continue to raise substantial funds, creating valuations that are hard to justify. This trend is similar to the price phenomenon of major tokens from 2020 to 2022. From the perspective of the attention economy, these factors partly explain why this crypto cycle hasn't had the same impact as previous ones.
Animoca Digital Research: As of August 2024, we believe we’re still in the midst of a bull market cycle for crypto. Despite recent occurrences in global asset markets, the medium-term view is still positive. Based on overlaying this cycle versus previous cycles, all indications point to the fact that this isn’t the peak of this cycle. In the frame of bull market corrections, the recent correction of ~30% is well within the historical ranges.
Despite recent volatility stemming from the TradFi markets, we see multiple positive drivers for the overall crypto market in the medium term:
Large liquidations like the German government sell in July are positive catalysts as they clean out any leveraged long in the system with forced selling and keep only spot holders who are much stronger in holding the asset. The new round of liquidations in August has further cleaned out leveraged positions in the system.
The majority of the buying on crypto has been coming from ETFs, including BTC and ETH. It showed us two important pieces of info:
TradFi buyers aren’t paper-handed and understand the volatility inherent in the asset, so they aren’t easily shaken out. The trading volume on BTC and ETH ETF during the recent market moderately increased but is still far from their all-time highs.
TradFi buyers are indeed price-sensitive and have measured buying based on price levels.
The FTX settlement towards the end of the year will start the process of unlocking more than USD 10 billion to FTX creditors. The exact timing is uncertain, but it'll certainly be positive for locked-up FTX capital to become unlocked and deployable again.
The rise in the unemployment rate and cooling down of inflation leads to a high chance of the Fed’s interest rate dropping in September.
A potential Trump presidency is increasing the odds of an administration that’s more friendly towards crypto.
Let's look more closely at U.S. interest rates and the presidency.
Three indicators suggest a soon-to-occur Federal Reserve interest rate cut: first, Q2 U.S. GDP growth reached 2.8%, significantly exceeding expectations. Second, the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, triggering the "Sahm Rule," an indicator of economic recession. And third, the inflation rate has been stable within the range of 3.1% and 3.5% over the past 12 months.
The CME FedWatch anticipates an 84.5% probability that the Fed will lower the target rate to 475-500 basis points in the September meeting. The yield curve between 2-year and 10-year Treasury bonds is getting close to the flip point. The VIX index, which indicates upcoming market volatility, has surged. In addition, the recent downturn in the stock market also hints at a potential liquidity injection from the Fed to stabilize the market. A reduced interest rate and liquidity injection add liquidity to the market and will quickly reach crypto through ETF purchases.
The Trump vs. Harris campaign represents a contest between pro-crypto policy and no policy. Recent BTC price has closely tracked Trump's lead in the polls: rallying after Biden's withdrawal from candidacy, further boosted by Trump's speech at a crypto convention. However, Trump's narrowing lead in polls has coincided with a correction in BTC price. We believe a Trump presidency remains a likely scenario, and as the campaign progresses, his lead in the polls may recover, potentially driving growth in BTC price and the overall crypto market.
2. Considering the global environment, what core issues in the crypto industry need to be addressed?
OKX Ventures: Given the current macro environment, we believe the industry needs to focus on two core issues.
First, the sustainability of technological innovation is crucial. While significant progress has been made in infrastructure, enhancing network security while improving transaction efficiency and reducing costs remains a key challenge. This requires not only continuous technological iteration but also close collaboration and co-innovation among industry participants.
Second, the integration of educational outreach and culture shouldn’t be overlooked. Although the user base for cryptocurrencies is rapidly expanding, public understanding of cryptocurrency technology and its applications remains limited. Therefore, we believe that increasing public knowledge of crypto is essential. This will help more ordinary users understand and engage with the industry, thereby promoting healthy industry growth.
Hashed: In the current environment, we believe the crypto industry should focus on solving two core issues.
First, it’s essential to use blockchain technology to decentralize and distribute increasingly centralized technologies, such as closed-source AI. This issue isn’t just about AI but also involves societal concerns related to the accumulation of excessive power by a few entities. The rise of blockchain technology stemmed from dissatisfaction with centralized government institutions, censorship, and financial control, and a desire for free exchange and storage of value. This topic is resurfacing now, including concerns about centralization and censorship by companies and governments. AI (especially AGI) has significant potential and impact on human history. Due to its nature, it’s considered a national security issue, leading to increased fortification. If AI development remains concentrated in a few centralized companies and institutions, there could be large-scale surveillance issues. Addressing these problems with the spirit of blockchain — contrasting sharply with centralization — is a practical challenge that the industry should address.
Second, the incentive mechanisms in the crypto market need to evolve. Tokens, as tools for incentives and ownership, have not yet fulfilled their potential. Insufficient precision in token dynamics and market price discovery has led to the underutilization of network tokens as tools for incentive alignment. Before this fundamental issue is resolved, the growth of token-based decentralized networks will face significant limitations.
Although various mechanisms have been designed and many protocols have experimented with incentive alignment, effective and capital-efficient incentive distribution and alignment have not yet been achieved. Therefore, it isn’t surprising that more projects haven’t used tokens to replace traditional companies. We look forward to seeing solutions to these long-term industry challenges. We support industry participants who understand the inherent economic value of blockchain protocols and promote the use of broader decentralized protocols to replace traditional company structures.
Animoca Digital Research: Expanding use cases and user acquisition are core challenges currently facing the industry, for both individual and enterprise users. For example, how can we convert gaming enthusiasts into participants in the Web3 ecosystem? Or, how can we encourage Telegram users to adopt blockchain-based payment services? Additionally, exploration of approaches to leverage blockchain to address enterprise-level needs, such as integrating real-world assets (RWA) in the traditional finance industry. These are the problems we need to solve.
The high valuations of many existing projects, particularly those in the infrastructure space, are predicated on the expectation of substantial future user adoption and usage growth. However, it’s crucial to emphasize that only sustained, organic growth in real users and usage can justify these lofty valuations. Furthermore, this growth must translate into actual use cases, enabling the tokens held by investors to become the payment medium that fuels decentralized collaborative networks, thereby realizing the true value of these projects.
II. Future Challenges and Opportunities
On challenges
OKX Ventures: One of the current challenges in the industry is that despite significant investments in infrastructure development, there are few applications that have a substantial impact and attract a large number of real users. Many infrastructures, although technologically advanced, haven’t significantly improved in terms of user acceptance and practicality. Furthermore, for blockchain infrastructure, the key is to serve end-users more efficiently rather than just showcasing technological capabilities. For instance, advanced technologies like FHE (Fully Homomorphic Encryption) and ZK (Zero-Knowledge Proofs) still face numerous hurdles in achieving widespread adoption. We need to find a more effective balance between technology promotion and application development.
Additionally, in the realm of practical applications, while the DeFi sector has seen market growth in recent years, there’s still a strong demand for products that address specific needs and offer greater innovation. Many DeFi projects are exploring multi-chain operations, enhancing decentralization, introducing more real-world assets, and developing derivatives, but achieving a perfect integration of liquidity and functionality across broader scenarios still requires ongoing effort and innovation.
Hashed: We believe the crypto industry faces two core challenges: regulatory scrutiny and infrastructure scalability.
First, regulatory uncertainty is a major barrier. Although crypto technology is globally applicable, to become a legitimate asset class, it must comply with regulations from major economies such as the U.S., China, South Korea, and Singapore. Regulatory differences and rapid changes increase compliance difficulty. For example, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has recently intensified its scrutiny of crypto exchanges, suing Coinbase and Binance, and issuing new guidelines that may reclassify various crypto assets as securities. This uncertainty severely hampers investment and innovation.
To address this challenge, Hashed actively engages with global regulators to advocate for clear, fair, and consistent regulatory frameworks. In 2022, Hashed established the Hashed Open Research (HOR) and Hashed Open Dialogue for Law (HODL) initiatives to facilitate dialogue between the blockchain community and governments, help portfolio companies understand the latest regulatory best practices, and collaborate with academia and industry experts to drive company growth.
Second, infrastructure scalability is also a significant challenge. Bitcoin and Ethereum struggle with inefficiency, high costs, and slow processing when handling large volumes of transactions. Although the Ethereum Foundation has improved mainnet scalability through network upgrades, the development of Layer-2 protocols and non-EVM L1 chains is equally important. Hashed has invested in Layer-2 projects like Taiko and supported Solana’s efforts to increase transaction throughput and reduce costs, and invested in ecosystem projects like Backpack. Hashed will continue to identify and invest in projects that drive growth and scalability in the crypto industry.
Animoca Digital Research: One challenge currently faced by the industry is the difficulty in retaining retail investor participation in newly launched projects. This is evidenced by the rapid decline in project fully diluted value (FDV) observed after token generation events (TGE) this year, as well as the conflicts surrounding token airdrop transparency. Both led to a decline in interest from retail investors. Retail investors are a vital source of market liquidity, and the inability to sustain their engagement poses a significant threat to the overall health of the crypto ecosystem.
To address this challenge, VCs and exchanges should take a proactive approach, such as a joint effort to improve the project price discovery mechanisms. This may involve the development of more sophisticated valuation models and the introduction of transparent, data-driven price-setting processes. By enhancing the accuracy and reliability of project valuations, the market can foster an environment of greater trust and confidence among retail investors. Project teams should also focus on aligning interests between projects and their communities, such as mechanisms that communities can better contribute to the project network effect and in return, share a portion of the network value.
On opportunities
OKX Ventures: We believe that a major opportunity in the new cycle is leveraging crypto technology innovations to attract Web2 users into the Web3 space and ensure their effective retention. Additionally, the integration of AI technology with Web3 is a crucial area, as it is important for enhancing transaction efficiency, driving personalized user services, and building new products. For example, using AI to analyze and predict market trends or employing AI-enhanced smart contracts to automate more financial services.
In light of the challenges mentioned earlier and the opportunities in the new cycle, OKX Ventures’ current approach is to optimize resource allocation, enhance the rigor of project evaluation and investment decisions, and ensure that funding is directed towards projects that deliver genuine technological breakthroughs and user growth. We also aim to identify innovative projects that bridge existing technologies with market demands, particularly Web3 applications that integrate Web2 advantages, to drive the industry forward.
Furthermore, we’ll continue collaborating and exchanging ideas with other industry participants, constantly adjusting and refining our investment strategies to support industry development in the new cycle. For investment firms, staying at the forefront of innovation requires not only courage and vision but also meticulous strategic planning and execution. We remain optimistic about the industry’s development in the new cycle.
Hashed: We believe there are two particularly significant opportunities to observe over the next five years: the tokenization of real-world assets (RWA) and achieving "from zero to one" innovation using crypto technology.
Firstly, the tokenization of RWA can unlock the accessibility and capital efficiency of illiquid assets. This includes tokenizing real estate, commodities, artwork, and even intellectual property. Tokenized assets can provide fractional ownership, increase liquidity, and make hard or intangible assets that were previously accessible only to certain individuals or institutions more broadly obtainable. To advance this field, we are seeking teams with expertise in handling traditional assets and a commitment to their tokenization. For example, Story Protocol is an open-source infrastructure that tokenizes intellectual property, offering programmable features for provenance, ownership, and monetization. Another project that fits this investment category is a team working on tokenizing institutional-grade GPUs, turning them into NFTs, and building an inhouse DeFi ecosystem for lending, borrowing, and derivatives trading backed by real-world yields from GPU usage. Investing in teams building such platforms helps democratize access to diverse asset classes that are uncorrelated to crypto-specific risks.
A further avenue of opportunity lies in discovering entrepreneurs who can leverage blockchain technology for "from zero to one" innovation, with the potential to redefine existing paradigms and create entirely new market opportunities.
On the one hand, we see potential in the payment sector, such as through mobile devices and blockchain-driven payment systems that enable open finance and provide financial services to the unbanked population. Blockchain technology is well-suited for fast settlements and low transaction costs, yet a clear winner has not yet emerged in the payment space.
On the other hand, capital efficiency within the Bitcoin network hasn't been fully utilized. Despite Bitcoin's market capitalization reaching $1 trillion, the market cap captured onchain is less than 0.1%. There's significant opportunity in areas that help users earn returns and develop onchain strategies. Lastly, an example of creating new markets would be like what Ethena has done - tokenizing funding rates into a "synthetic dollar" instrument, thereby creating the first-ever crypto-native internet bond. Ethena captures the funding payments from traders on CEXs, tokenizes them into a single onchain instrument that is delta-neutral, and enables usage across multichain DeFi: DEXs, money markets as collateral, derivatives, etc. The above are examples of areas which Hashed are thoroughly excited by, and believe will see similar opportunities arising in the next few years.
Animoca Digital Research: The main goal of Web3 at this stage is to attract and retain users from Web2 to Web3 by providing real value to them. Here we discuss 3 directions that are pushing this frontier forward.
The first notable one is the TON ecosystem. TON on Telegram and its Mini Apps framework provide a seamless infrastructure for integrating Web3 features into everyday usage. With 900+ million monthly active users and the playbook already developed by WeChat's mini-apps and payment success, TON has a clear path to massively onboarding users to Web3. The continuous emergence of mini-apps could potentially create a "red-envelope moment" akin to WeChat Pay’s success — a breakthrough app that migrates hundreds of millions of users overnight and stays there. Additionally, the use of TONcoin on the Telegram platform presents further opportunities, such as improved value-sharing mechanisms between channels and users in advertising, resulting in a more effective marketing platform.
The second opportunity lies in GameFi. The Mocaverse by Animoca Brands establishes a network with an addressable user base of 700 million. Several intent-centric features are provided by Mocaverse. Projects that can effectively integrate and leverage the ecosystem can accelerate their growth, enhancing the value of the associated digital assets and therefore become a more valuable investment target.
Last but not least, consumer hardware products such as smartphones and smartwatches present another frontier to introduce users to Web3. Pre-installed features and Web3 apps simplify onboarding, while embedded airdrop mechanisms can trigger users to try for the first time. This is particularly relevant for emerging markets with underdeveloped digital infrastructure. The Web3 infrastructure could enable these countries to leapfrog into a digital economy that doesn’t rely on domestic or foreign institutions.
III. Narratives that OKX Ventures, Hashed, and Animoca Digital Research are focusing on
OKX Ventures: OKX Ventures continues to make extensive investments across several sectors, including blockchain infrastructure, DeFi, Web3, AI, GameFi, and the Bitcoin ecosystem, covering over 300 projects in total. The core basis for investments is driven by current market demands and future expectations, with a primary focus on infrastructure development, driving DeFi product innovation, and bridging the gap between Web2 users and the Web3 world.
From our investment portfolio, although infrastructure and DeFi remain central, we have also witnessed the rise of Web3 and gamified applications. This shift reflects the evolution of the cryptocurrency market from purely financial tools to platforms offering broader user experiences. As technology matures and the market develops, the cryptocurrency industry may further integrate into more everyday application scenarios.
In the upcoming development cycle, OKX Ventures firmly believes that deep investment in these key areas will sustain industry innovation and further promote the maturity and widespread adoption of the cryptocurrency ecosystem. Our goal is to provide continuous value growth for investors by leading technological and business model innovations and offering users a richer Web3 experience.
Regarding infrastructure development, we’ll continue to invest in high-performance and efficient technological solutions. This includes parallel processing technologies like MegaETH and Monad designed for specific needs, AI-specific chains, and advanced privacy technologies like Fully Homomorphic Encryption (FHE) and Zero-Knowledge Proofs (ZK). This innovative infrastructure won’t only drive new user growth but also support sustainable development for the industry.
Regarding innovative DeFi sectors, given the maturity of the DeFi market and user base, our focus is on multi-chain integration, higher levels of decentralization, the introduction of Real World Assets (RWA) technology, and the development of more complex financial derivatives.
Regarding large-scale Web2 user migration, in the process of transitioning Web2 users to Web3, we’re particularly interested in opportunities to integrate with existing high-traffic platforms. For example, leveraging AI technologies and platforms (like ChatGPT) and the power of social media (such as Telegram) allows Web3 projects to reach hundreds of millions of ordinary users who haven’t previously engaged with cryptocurrencies. This presents a significant growth opportunity for the entire industry.
Hashed: Our focus on narratives hasn’t changed — the only difference is that the industry is maturing, allowing us to see the practical effects of these applications and infrastructures. We concentrate on applications and infrastructures that drive positive and meaningful behavioral and lifestyle changes while nurturing a thriving ecosystem composed of true builders, users, and producers.
For example, our investment in Axie Infinity pioneered and commercialized a novel approach that attracted a significant number of gamers from Southeast Asia and the Asia-Pacific region, providing them with substantial income. By establishing infrastructure like the Katana DEX and Ronin Bridge, Axie Infinity's Ronin ecosystem has grown to over 1.5 million daily active users and 3.8 million monthly active users, serving high-quality games such as Pixels and Apeiron. Also in the context of RWA and large-scale Web2 user migration, we incubated Modhaus, a blockchain-enabled entertainment studio managing the rising K-pop female idol group, TripleS, with more units planned. Traditionally, fans engaged passively by attending concerts, watching TV shows, or buying merchandise, with limited involvement in their favorite groups' governance. Modhaus changes this by using blockchain technology for onchain governance and DAOs, allowing fans to actively participate in decisions. For example, fans voted on TripleS' debut title song through a process linked to photo cards (Objekts) they purchased, with each vote called a Como. All activities are transparently recorded onchain.
Additionally, our investment in Story Protocol pioneered and commercialized programmable intellectual property (IP), capturing the attention of builders in the media, entertainment, and blockchain industries. The disparity between Western Hollywood writers' strikes and the gap in the Eastern anime industry highlights how IP giants dominate most IP-derived revenue but fail to provide clear and transparent monetization methods to original creators and stakeholders. To address this centralization issue, Story Protocol's IP mapping allows any stakeholder, including original content creators, to easily track, prove, and manage IP and its derivatives. Its three core modules — onchain IP registration, licensing, and royalty management — are currently in the testnet phase, inspiring media and entertainment industry stakeholders to use blockchain to solve black-box centralization issues, leading to exponential growth in users and builders before its mainnet launch.
Animoca Digital Research: The Web3 ecosystem has evolved from silo, to modular, and now starts to form collaboration networks that projects only need to focus on its core value add and leverage other projects’ capabilities to scale. Coprocessor and intent-centric design are two development trends that will greatly improve the adoption of Web3 and thus are worth following.
Coprocessor
Coprocessor offloads massive onchain querying and transactions to off-chain processes and returns the result back to the smart contract in a trustless manner. It provides a robust framework for managing and verifying the state of digital assets in a scalable way without sacrificing the trustless nature, enhancing the security and auditability of asset ownership, transfer, and other key activities in specific sectors.
In GameFi, applications often process complex game mechanics, player interactions, and economic transactions. For example, onchain tile-matching games may require users to sign or verify each step in a tedious manner. With a coprocessor, compute-intensive game logic can be assigned to off-chain processes, allowing the main blockchain only to handle confirmation and verification of the final state. These innovations allow games to develop more sophisticated game modes and in-game economies, such as a 100% onchain loyalty program.
Intent-centric design
Intent-centric design is a philosophy that prioritizes user outcomes over process complexity. It aims to deliver desired results without burdening users with unnecessary technical details.
In GameFi, intent-centric development reduces the barrier for mainstream users to enter and benefit from Web3 capabilities. Users can join Web3 games without the need to download a crypto wallet and manage gas fees. Created online identities and acquired digital assets can be seamlessly used in other games, while rewards can be used to pay for other services without the need to convert or transfer.
For the disclaimer related to OKX Ventures, please refer to: www.okx.com/zh-hans/learn/okx-disclaimer.
For the disclaimer related to Animoca Digital Research, please refer to: https://research.dat.animoca.space/disclaimers.
For the disclaimer related to Hashed, please refer to: https://medium.com/hashed-official/hashed-content-disclaimer-ba4cef0280f1
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